Toronto, Ontario, Canada About Blog Geopolitical Monitor is an open-source intelligence collection and forecasting service. Share. Actually, there are noteworthy precedents. This is usually related to the development of formidable maritime power projection capabilities, a condition that is necessary in order to ensure the flow of international trade through secure sea lanes. Finally, another card that the US can play in case of dangerous geo-financial turmoil is to resort to its gold reserves in order to back the greenback with the yellow metal once again. Accordingly, this would likely mean an increased financial Lebensraum for currencies like the euro, the yuan and the pound sterling, amongst others. It is therefore hard to anticipate with a high degree of accuracy what the future will bring regarding the present monetary hegemony. In other words, it paradoxically represents a self-defeating struggle. Furthermore, as a matter of policy in terms of grand strategy, Washington has done everything in its power to preserve and enhance the dominant role of its currency as an international unit of account, store of value and medium of exchange. That would increase Chinese geoeconomic weight in commodity markets, the international flow of capital, institutional influence and national prestige. If gold reassumes a central role in worldwide financial markets as a result of a multilateral consensus negotiated amongst the great powers – this could happen in the aftermath of a new major financial crisis of international proportions – some players would evidently be better positioned than others. A map is essential in this regard. 12 Predictions for Global Geopolitics for 2019 through 2025—and Beyond Across the globe, governments and institutions face increasing threats to their legitimacy and authority. A possibility that arises from this reasoning is the birth of a multilateral currency. Past is precedent in Israeli election, Secretary-General Guterres warns on the financial stability of the developing world, and troubling signs of a civil war in Myanmar. When it comes to assessing what to expect in the esoteric realm where geopolitics meets finance, there is no crystal ball. April 1, 2021 06:52. In geopolitical terms, this idea might be attractive in case the global balance of power is reasonably stable. Listen on Apple Podcasts. For instance, the late Swiss banker Ferdinand Lips explained that, since gold is an asset whose value is determined by its natural scarcity, it promotes fiscal responsibility and sound monetary policies, which would limit the possibility of resorting to endless credit and perpetual debt – both closely associated to fiat money – in order to artificially inflate military budgets and, consequently, war expenditures. Only time will tell if such plans go as expected, especially considering that this project has sparked heated debates about its implications for national security, personal privacy and the challenges it poses in terms of crafting a monetary policy related to currencies issued by national states with diverging geopolitical and economic interests. Nonetheless, appearances can be deceiving. Reach thousands of authority bloggers and social media influencers in your domain area. The power of empires inevitably declines after reaching their zenith. Milos Damnjanovic. October. In the debate concerning the future of monetary hegemony, it has been argued that a global financial order based on gold as its cornerstone could lead to an international system more stable in terms of geopolitical tension or even military conflict. Assessing the geopolitics and motives behind emergence of the Quad’s Leadership Summit. By Geopolitical Monitor By Alex Holstein* Over the last decade, and now against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, the world has witnessed an alarming rise in instability. So far, none of the cryptocurrencies that have been launched is issued by a central bank. Thus, this is by far the most ominous scenario. Britain’s Voice on Sexual Violence Must Be Consistent | Geopolitical Monitor If London hopes to have any credibility, it must be uniform in its condemnation of sexual violence. Moreover, it must be pointed out that the conditions mentioned in these scenarios are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Even if it is not entirely clear who or what will eventually inherit the dollar’s coveted position, the possibility of a transition towards a bipolar or multipolar monetary order is real. In fact, some analysts claim that the US dollar has been on life support since the global financial crisis that broke out more than ten years ago. Third Scenario: Geo-Financial Bipolarity or Multipolarity. Therefore, the emergence of SDRs as international money offers valuable opportunities for those interested in disabling the dollar’s supremacy, but without worrying about the disruption of financial stability. Our team of experts provide unique and insightful perspectives on situations and events that have a substantive impact on business, political, military and economic affairs. Therefore, China intends to challenge the US monetary hegemony, even if that means the creation of a system of parallel structures conceived to bypass the dollar. Global Forecast (3-30-2021) Forecasts - March 30, 2021. Geopolitical Monito‪r‬ Geopolitical Monitor News 5.0 • 1 Rating; Listen on Apple Podcasts. Some analysts hold that an international monetary transition can be relatively peaceful and gradual. it must be borne in mind that sometimes countries sacrifice their legitimate economic interests for the sake of victory. However, the prospects of an eventual restoration of a gold standard are being discussed nowadays. Moreover, it would prevent the structural distortions commonly associated with unipolar monetary hegemony. The most feasible candidate would be something called “Special Drawing Rights,” an artificial asset created as a unit of account by the International Monetary Fund, and whose value is tied to a basket of several currencies. However, since the stakes are too great, it would be unwise to assume that the outcome will not be shaped by an increasing level of geopolitical tension. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Next 100 Years. Brand Monitoring. Vietnam Economy Well Positioned for Post-COVID Surge | Geopolitical Monitor Vietnam is one of few nations expecting positive GDP growth in 2020. In other words, the players that control the largest gold holdings would have the chance to define the essential rules in the structural rearrangement of global financial governance. In review, Geopolitics Alert publishes news and opinions related to USA conflicts around the world from a non-interventionist perspective. Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. is an international intelligence publication and consultancy with its main office located in Toronto, Canada. Die Digitalisierung der Welt führt zu einer neuen Krypto-Ökonomie, die … This would reflect the emergence of multiple geopolitical and economic nerve centers. Brand Monitoring. It can potentially become a competitive challenger, but one that would have to overcome substantial structural issues if it intends to catch up. But governing won’t be easy for the winner. Geopoliticalmonitor.com is a registered trade name of Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. © 2021 Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp., All Rights Reserved | ISSN 1927-3045. you need to be logged in to access this page. Geopolitical Monitor. At least for the time being, their critical mass lacks a strong gravitational pull. In fact, this option’s underlying basket could even be widened so it also includes the currencies of emerging markets. Given its apt handling of COVID-19 and ongoing US-China tensions, the country is now well placed to lead Southeast Asia’s economic recovery. Accordingly, the yuan is currently positioned as a rising currency, but it is still too early to tell whether it is capable of overtaking the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Meanwhile, geopolitical threats produced large and protracted recessionary effects as well as a decline in stock prices. While we review all submissions, not every submission will be published. Therefore, the emergence of SDRs as international money offers … An abrupt monetary collapse can unleash widespread chaos derived from a widespread destruction of wealth. Geopoliticalmonitor.com We take a … Therefore, even though the current position of US dollar seems solid at a first glance, alternative prospects deserve to be taken into account, particularly in a context in which the greenback faces structural challenges and is being targeted by a myriad of Washington’s strategic rivals. The Geopolitical Logic of Turkey’s Strategic Reorientation Turkey’s robust expeditionary capabilities derive from the build-up of its defense industry over the course of the past two decades, a transformation whose logic extends back into Turkey’s strategic reorientation beginning in the early post-Cold War period. This NPR will aim to build confidence among NPT stakeholders, essentially However, in this case the dollar could still act as the reserve currency of one of these blocs. Submissions will be assessed on the basis of how well they adhere to the formats outlined below. The recent proliferation of cryptocurrencies – a product of the Fourth Industrial Revolution – is seen by some as a game-changer that has given credence to the idea that, at some point, one of them could eventually become the new dominant global currency. Other factors worth taking into account are the intrinsic volatile nature of contemporary financial markets – which are vulnerable to several kinds of disruptions – the systemic accumulation of unpayable debts, and the implementation of monetary policies that, far from correcting structural imbalances, are actually deepening them. In fact, it looks like – more than ever before – strategic competition is unfolding in the field of finance. However, the adoption of SDRs as the new international reserve currency would have to face significant obstacles. Gauging the China-Iran Deal, Great Power Competition Comes to the Middle East: Iraq and the China-Iran Agreement, Impeachment, Apathy, and COVID-19 Loom over Peru Polls, US-Philippine Alliance: Duterte Demands US ‘Pay’ to Salvage Troop Deal, Strategic Commodities 2.0: Global Tantalum Supply & Demand, ISIS-Linked Insurgency Opens a Vacuum in Northeast Mozambique, Britain’s Voice on Sexual Violence Must Be Consistent. However, it is possible to assess the prospects of plausible scenarios. We » Geopolitical Monitor is an open-source intelligence collection and forecasting service. THE OBAMA NUCLEAR POLICY REVIEW The Obama administration is well aware of the importance of the 2010 NPT review conference, and as such it has been conducting its Nuclear Policy Review (NPR) very carefully. He is also a regular contributor to KJ Vids YouTube geopolitical channel where he writes video scripts on geopolitical issues. It was also a process that played a role in the breakdown of society and order that ended up in a stark civilizational regression. It could even be argued that the first shots have already been fired in this highly unconventional battle space. Situation Report (600-2,000 words) A situation report takes one pertinent geopolitical topic or issue and analyzes it from all possible angles. That usually means that hegemonic reserve currencies are issued by the most powerful states. Next in our series on strategic commodities we examine tantalum, a conflict mineral with complex geopolitical ramifications for East Africa and beyond. Its might is felt in the domains of military affairs, geopolitics, intelligence, industry, energy, science, culture and technology. Besides, the redefinition of certain financial dynamics as issues that are being dealt with in terms of high strategy because of their ramifications in the field of international and national security is also a phenomenon that cannot be overlooked. In unserem NEWS-BLOG finden Sie Recherchen, Analysen und Berichte rund um die Themen Geopolitik, Ökonomie, Business, Medien, Geld und Kapitalschutz, Recht und Steuern. For instance, the fall of the Roman denarius was not only a key driver in the decline of the Roman Empire. JUL 12, 2019; What a US-Iran War Would Look Like What a US-Iran War Would Look Like. Companies should assess and monitor how geopolitical relations with China may impact deals and financing in their sector of operation. There are several alternative plausible scenarios that need to be examined. https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/why-consociationalism-…/. As a matter of statecraft, China has been assertively promoting the internationalization of the yuan, also known as renminbi, a measure intended to enhance Chinese national power in the realm of finance. In this context, even covert operations – which are often undertaken in order to derail or at least to delay structural trends – constitute a tool that can be used to protect the supremacy of the greenback in the coming decades. Additionally, the ultimate fate of the dollar hegemony depends on foreigners and their willing to underwrite such an “exorbitant privilege” in an interdependent world. This reality fuels reasonable doubts about the long-term prospects of fiat money, in general, and the monetary hegemony of the US dollar, in particular. Besides, it must not be forgotten that even though the greenback is a fiat currency, it is backed by US power projection capabilities, including a formidable nuclear arsenal. An atlas is a geopolitical cheat sheet. Last week’s brutal Palma attack is fueling concerns of state collapse in northeast Mozambique. After all, history provides countless examples that international financial governance and monetary affairs operate like mirrors that reflect the parallel correlation of geopolitical forces prevailing in the international system. Feedspot has over 100k Influential Bloggers database classified in more than 1500 niche categories. Geopolitics Alert uses occasional moderate loaded words that favor the left such as: “ There’s a great deal to be said about Donald Trump’s pardon for criminal racist Joe Arpaio. Accordingly, they are often the victims of their own success. In other words, they are not backed by the national power of any state. In fact, more than one monetary unit can act as reserve currency. If London hopes to have any credibility, it must be uniform in its condemnation of sexual violence. Beijing regards the general atmosphere of global financial and monetary uncertainty as a window of opportunity to strengthen its currency and to downgrade the currency of its top strategic rival: the greenback. Hence, the rise of the renminbi is a sign of China’s increasing economic strength.