Last year marked the deadliest year on record in Mali, with Islamist militant groups stepping up attacks against local and foreign security forces and civilians. The militants also continued to encroach on Palma town, which was likely an effort to cut off Total’s Afungi LNG facility. Cyber Tipping Point. Political violence in Mali increased in intensity throughout 2020, which is a trend that will likely continue this year. Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast: Q1 2021. The recently published 2021 Geostrategic Outlook presents analysis on the global political risk environment in 2021, with geopolitics of COVID-19 as the top risk. If Correa’s preferred candidate, Andres Arauz, fails to win the presidency, or if the result is disputed, unrest among his supporters is likely to be high. A resurgence of protests is likely if Piñera or the elected constitutional convention stall in implementing sought-after reforms. Scottish fishermen have already halted exports to the EU over criticisms of the new requirement for health certificates, customs declarations and other paperwork which add days to delivery times and hundreds of pounds in costs. The ceasefire deal could generate economic benefits to Armenia, relieving pressure on Pashinyan. In November, militants then temporarily seized multiple settlements in Muidumbe district, executing at least 50 civilians in the area. The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI) tracks the relative frequency of analyst reports and financial news stories associated with geopolitical risks. Licensed for reuse. Lockdowns and other COVID-19-related restrictions will have a negative impact on global growth rates for at least the first half of 2021. Chile’s November presidential election, and election of a body to draft a new constitution, could reignite mass protests this year. Iran is likely to continue using Yemen’s Houthi rebels to target tankers, ports and other energy infrastructure within Saudi territory and maritime boundaries. Pashinyan is likely to shuffle government ministers to consolidate his support base. Tehran will likely sustain aggressive foreign policies to increase pressure on the US ahead of potential renegotiations. Ecuador experienced mass protests over unpopular gasoline subsidy cuts in October 2019, and the country’s 7 February general election could reignite social tensions stemming from the issue. While countries such as the United States and Germany will have new leadership in 2021, most of the world’s other leading actors will continue to be led by the same people that have overseen this rise in geopolitical risk levels, boding ill for the prospects for a lessening of geopolitical tensions around the world. Turkey has also suggested including Yerevan in a regional cooperation platform alongside Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Georgia if the country is perceived to pursue regional peace. Fasten your seatbelts, investors: Global threats to digital privacy, security, and freedom of expression and information are on the rise. As we prepare to enter a new year, and leave behind a year that most people would like to forget, it is clear that the elevated levels of geopolitical risk that we have been facing in recent years will remain in place for the foreseeable future. North Korea has previously relied on weapons tests to garner international attention and force negotiations with major powers, particularly the US. Mass protests triggered by a rise in subway fares erupted in October 2019, but quickly developed into wider unrest over long-term socioeconomic grievances. Militants affiliated with the Islamic State (IS) group stepped up attacks in Cabo Delgado province in late 2020. High-profile, high-impact attacks from Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) are likely to continue in 2021. In developed countries particularly, there are likely to be more anti-lockdown and anti-vaccination protests. © 2021 PGI - Protection Group International Ltd. All rights reserved. The 16th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report analyses the risks from societal fractures—manifested through persistent and emerging risks to human health, rising unemployment, widening digital divides, youth disillusionment, and geopolitical fragmentation. In the absence of effective dialogue mechanisms, intensifying friction in bilateral relations has wide-ranging implications for the Indo-Pacific region. 08-01-2021. The incident highlights the potential for further violent protests and unrest, amid increasing political polarisation. North Korea’s relations with the US and South Korea have been strained due to a prolonged impasse in talks over Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear weapons programme. Top Risks 2021. These grievances were previously highlighted when authorities stopped paying public sector wages due to an economic crisis caused by low oil prices and financial mismanagement. Crude Oil Prices Choppy, Rising Geopolitical Risks to Spark Oil Volatility 2021-04-07 10:30:00 Justin McQueen , Analyst Crude Oil Price Analysis & News The top geopolitical risks for 2021, according to Eurasia Group. Political risk is creating both challenges and opportunities for organisations. 1. Resource nationalism surges in 2020, Covid-19 worsens outlook. ... 2021 … While there is an expectation that the incoming Biden Administration in Washington will attempt to alleviate tensions between the two giants, flashpoints such as Taiwan, Hong Kong and the … A change in the country’s top leadership in April increases the potential for political and economic reforms in the year ahead. China is America's strongest competitor, a state capitalist, authoritarian, and techno-surveillance regime that is … Read the latest analysis on geopolitical issues today, covering political, economic, military, commodities, energy security & environmental issues. The risk now is that a major Russian offensive against Ukraine splits the continent from the Anglo-American world. The overall security situation is likely to worsen throughout 2021. There is a heightened risk of violent anti-government protests across Iraq in the year ahead. As the world struggles to emerge from the Covid-19 crisis – which has arguably been the most economically disruptive event since World War II – domestic and international politics will see major transformations. Political risks and violence returns to the top 10 of the Allianz Risk Barometer for the first time since 2018, reflecting the fact that civil unrest incidents such as protests and riots now challenge terrorism as the main political risk exposure for companies. As a result, geopolitical risk levels entering 2021 are as high as they have been since any time over the past ten to fifteen years, a less-than-welcome development for a world that is struggling to overcome the dislocations caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Particularly in the first half of 2021, as businesses adapt to the new regulations, trade could suffer from added costs and delays. Archishman is a second-year BA International Relations student. As geopolitical turbulence persists, these digital rights risks will force regulatory action in 2021. Country risk is an important consideration in building a diversified investment portfolio in capital, private or bond markets, as well as currency or … The increased tensions imply an elevated risk for energy and maritime logistics in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. Reforms would likely be supported by the incoming US administration of Joe Biden, who has previously said he intends to reverse the Trump administration’s hard-line policies towards Cuba. 2021 will be a year of uneven vaccine rollouts and uneven recovery. Meanwhile, travel bans and enhanced checks at ports and border crossings will continue to disrupt trade and global supply chains. The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI) tracks the relative frequency of analyst reports and financial news stories associated with geopolitical risks. This 2-hour virtual event will discuss short and long-term political and geopolitical risks outlining how Covid-19 will exacerbate pre-existing domestic tensions in many countries, while accelerating the trend of deglobalisation and pushing the US and China towards a more confrontational path. PGI - Protection Group International Ltd is registered in England & Wales, reg. Top 2021 Geopolitical Risks Country risk is an important consideration in building a diversified investment portfolio in capital, private or bond markets, as well as currency or commodities speculation or hedge trading. As such, it is clear that there will be much to watch in terms of geopolitical risk in 2021. Increased militant activity in the wider Sahel region has also led to warnings of a heightened risk to foreign nationals in West African coastal cities, such as Accra, Abidjan and Dakar. … These are the top geopolitical risks seen around the world, according to Eurasia Group. Agility in decision-making, operations and strategy will be crucial for managing the fallout from COVID-19 and associated political risks … The risks were recently highlighted by leader Kim Jong-un’s threat to further expand North Korea’s weapons modernisation programme and hostile remarks towards South Korea and the US at a meeting of the Workers’ Party congress in Pyongyang, which is the country’s largest political event. 6 April 2021. There is a risk of increased civil unrest in the year ahead following Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s agreement to a 9 November ceasefire with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) region. The webinar was held January 26 2021. That said, the challenges in relations between the two countries are structural and deeply rooted. The Political Risk Outlook 2021 contains expert research and analysis from senior members of our Country Risk Intelligence team, exploring the key global issues and country-level risks impacting multinational companies and investors today. The Asia Risk Awards return in 2021 to recognise best practice in risk management and derivatives use by banks and financial institutions around the region. - Geopolitical Risk In the Global Risks Report 2021, we share the results of the latest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), IE 11 is not supported. geopolitical tensions—will shape the effectiveness of our responses to the other key threats of the next decade: cyberattacks, weapons of mass destruction and, most notably, climate change. Civil unrest in the south will continue to pose significant threats to the energy industries as protesters regularly attempt to block oil fields. But given the various competing global and regional challenges, Pyongyang would have to carry out a major provocation to successfully employ those tactics this year. Our aim is to help our clients navigate the complex and uncertain global, 24/7 digital world, enabling them to understand and manage their risk exposure and ensure operational resilience. With economic and social tensions having soared as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the potential for conflict and unrest in many parts of the world has risen substantially, and any further dislocations that result from the pandemic will certainly add to these tensions in the months ahead. Confirmed cases and associated deaths are still rising in many countries, notably in Europe and North America, which is a trend that is unlikely to subside substantially in the first quarter of 2021. In August, the group occupied Mocimboa da Praia, subsequently using the strategically important port town as a base from which to expand operations. World of Worries: Political Risks in 2021. For an optimal experience visit … The threat posed by political violence in the Central African Republic (CAR) has increased in the wake of the presidential election in December 2020. The top geopolitical risks for 2021, according to Eurasia Group. By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021 By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021, at 3:56 p.m. There is an increased risk of civil unrest following the divisive November 2020 presidential election. As we settle into 2021, PGI’s Geopolitical Intelligence team have put together a list of some of the key risks for the coming year. On 19 April, Raul Castro will step down as the Communist Party’s First Secretary to make way for President Miguel Diaz-Canel, who will become the first person outside the Castro family to preside over Cuba in over 60 years. Risk 2: Long Covid. Under the ceasefire terms, Yerevan will build a corridor from NK’s capital Stepankert to Armenia, and from the Nakhchivan region to Azerbaijan. Our Intelligence specialists provide corporate intelligence and geopolitical risk analysis for multinational corporations and governments worldwide. Last year's report branded 2020 as a negative tipping point —globalization changing its trajectory towards a US-China economic … But governing won’t be … The North Korean leader’s comments are likely an effort to put pressure on the incoming US administration of Joe Biden to engage with Pyongyang. As such, here are our predictions for the ten leading geopolitical risks facing the world in the year 2021: The US-Chinese Cold War: Relations between the world’s two superpowers have fallen to their lowest level in decades. Ian Bremmer releases top geopolitical risks for 2021. 21-01-2021. Peru’s 26 January legislative elections and 11 April presidential election are potential flashpoints for civil unrest following the controversial removal of the former president. Every year in January, Eurasia Group, KPMG's Global Alliance partner, publishes its Top Risks report which forecasts key geopolitical risks for the year ahead. One factor behind the escalation in violence is the internecine war between JNIM and ISGS. The key discussion topics of the event will be: Ian Bremmer releases top geopolitical risks for 2021. MSNBC. The risk of military conflict over Taiwan continues to grow, while Chinese foreign policy will become more aggressive. Protesters have denounced Pashinyan as a traitor and demanded his resignation. However, the effectiveness of such efforts is likely to be limited, as groups such as QAnon and Proud Boys may just move to alternative platforms. Analysis. It is little surprise that, following one of the most chaotic years in recent history, geopolitical risk levels entering the year 2021 are dangerously high. The elections are likely to reignite grievances over living standards, public services, and corruption. Today we release our Fall 2020 Investor Update . The UK’s trade deal with the EU will pose new regulatory challenges to UK trade. We calculate the frequency of words that relate to geopolitical risk, adjust for positive and negative sentiment in the text of … Something is different in the geopolitical situation today. There is an elevated risk of civil unrest in Chile, Ecuador and Peru in the year ahead due to upcoming national elections. IE 11 is not supported. As we settle into 2021, PGI’s Geopolitical Intelligence team have put together a list of some of the key risks for the coming year. Editor’s Note. Long Covid and fragile global value chains. The militants now largely control key routes into Palma, giving them further opportunities to expand northwards and eastwards. Diaz-Canel’s election suggests the influence of the reformist wing of the party is growing. The unrest highlighted the unpopularity of President Lenin Moreno, particularly among indigenous groups, who overwhelmingly supported populist former president Rafael Correa. But whatever the reasons, the world today is more complicated and more dangerous than the world of just a year ago, and in many cases … From ongoing COVID-19 challenges to election-related unrest across South America, these are the areas that our Analysts have identified as potentially having significant impact on the economy and business operations. There is also a potential risk of unrest expanding to Kurdistan. Ian Bremmer releases top geopolitical risks for 2021. As geopolitical turbulence persists, these digital rights risks will force regulatory action in 2021. Though the agreement ensures that there will be no tariffs and quotas on trade in goods, independent bodies will monitor trade to ensure competition is fair, creating a notable regulatory burden. Mass protests broke out in November 2020 after Congress impeached popular former president Martin Vizcarra on alleged corruption charges. The Global Risks Report 2021. The longer it takes the Biden administration to put together a North Korea engagement strategy following his inauguration, the higher the possibility of an attention-grabbing missile launch or nuclear test. Webinar recording of KPMG and Eurasia Groups Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2021: Looking Ahead. The insurgency poses a considerable risk to Mozambique’s ambition to become a major energy producer, with the Total-operated project likely to be delayed due to deteriorating security conditions around Palma. The ceasefire resulted in Armenia ceding much of NK, including the region’s second largest city of Shusha, and surrounding districts to Azerbaijan. Read More. Negotiations could take several months and harm investor confidence. Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. In late December 2020 to early January 2021, JNIM killed five French soldiers in two separate IED attacks in Mali’s Menaka and Mopti regions. Top 2021 Geopolitical Risks. This indicates that not only is the level of geopolitical risk dangerously high, but that the pandemic is likely to have actually increased the threat posed by a number of these issues and flashpoints, while at the same time creating new threats to global stability and security. Now, the world faces not only threats to its stability from many of the geopolitical risks that existed before the world had ever heard of Covid-19, but also from threats that have emerged as a result of the economic, political and social changes that have come about due to the impact of the ongoing pandemic. Subsequently, the government accused Bozizé of orchestrating a coup. GEOPOLITICAL AND CYBERSECURITY RISK WEEKLY BRIEF 6 APRIL 2021. We calculate the frequency of words that relate to geopolitical risk, adjust for positive and negative sentiment in the text of … From ongoing COVID-19 challenges to election-related unrest across South America, these are the areas that our Analysts have identified as potentially having significant impact on the economy and business operations. The election-related unrest is expected to spark a harsh response from security forces and government-aligned militias. Potential reforms will, however, likely face internal resistance from the traditional wing of the party. - Intelligence. While 2020 was the year COVID-19 took the world by storm, the pandemic’s medium- to long-term effects on the geopolitical environment will begin to crystalize in 2021. In response to the Capitol riots, Twitter banned over 70,000 accounts linked to the QAnon conspiracy theory and Facebook blocked Trump’s account until Biden’s inauguration. Ian Bremmer releases top geopolitical risks for 2021. Email me. Control Risks 2021 Geopolitical Calendar. country intelligence for many of the world's leading companies, organizations and governments, with clients in more than 115 countries. Even without the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical risk levels would likely be at uncomfortable levels due to the myriad of internal and external tensions and flashpoints that have proliferated around the globe in recent years. These are the top geopolitical risks seen around the world, according to Eurasia Group. The risk is highest in countries which have experienced significant outbreaks of the virus, and where governments have implemented sweeping reforms to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic or cannot offset the fallout with substantial stimulus packages. Protests declined in early 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic but returned as restrictions were lifted. In response to this, we discuss short and long-term political and geopolitical risks outlining how Covid-19 will exacerbate pre-existing domestic tensions … The withdrawal agreement does not address services, which comprise 80 percent of the UK economy. The ISA International Market Potential Calculator, « The Six Main Issues Confronting President-Elect Biden. The UK and EU are likely to form another agreement over services in the year ahead, though it is unclear what its terms will be and how they will affect the UK economy. Trump and his allies in the Republican Party will likely continue to make unfounded allegations of electoral fraud to delegitimise Biden’s victory, fuelling further unrest and potential violence as the year progresses. 11 March 2021. “There is no escaping that the pandemic will be the number one driver of risk around the world, short and long term,” says Hecker. Before we look at the ten leading geopolitical risk levels for the coming year, it is interesting to look back at what we believed would be the ten biggest geopolitical risks of 2020. Militants could carry out road ambushes and kidnappings targeting employees near mining sites in southern and western Mali in order to deter further foreign investment. Any tests or launches would increase the risk of miscalculation and escalation, which may lead to limited interstate conflict. However, the pandemic has added another dimension to many of these flashpoints and has dramatically raised tensions in many parts of the world. Protests are likely to be violently suppressed by security forces and pro-government militias. Trade operations with the EU, as well as between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, will require more paperwork, which could overburden local businesses and damage commerce. Required fields. However, the rebel coalition may attempt to blockade Bangui, which would further undermine Touadera’s authority, increase food and resource insecurity, and bolster rebel group activity in areas outside of government control. ... Top 10 op risks 2021: geopolitical risk Stimulus unwind, Covid nationalism and regime changes spell volatile operating environment. Militants have also significantly stepped up raids targeting islands off the coast of Cabo Delgado and, in November 2020, seized seven sailboats transporting food supplies from Pemba, demonstrating their growing maritime strategy and capabilities. A coalition of six rebel groups loosely affiliated with former president Francois Bozizé threatened to march on the capital Bangui after Bozizé was barred from standing in the election. In late 2020, the group launched multiple cross border attacks in neighbouring Tanzania, which were the first such incidents since 2019. Low or negative growth and government stimulus packages will increase debt burdens substantially, putting pressure on countries to cut public spending, especially in emerging markets. Advanced Search. 2021 Geopolitical Risk: The year ahead. In July 2020, Tehran blamed Tel Aviv for a fire at the Natanz nuclear facility, and for assassinating Iran’s top nuclear scientist in November 2020. 2021 will be a year of uneven vaccine rollouts and uneven recovery. Discontent over the details of the ceasefire could allow opposition parties to reshape their image and mount a stronger threat to Pashinyan. Risk 3: Climate: net zero meets G-Zero. Instead, the Biden administration is likely to refrain from taking any unilateral action against Beijing beyond January, which will briefly ease tensions with China. Uncertainty around sectors of the UK economy could stifle investment. The following is based on the panel session ‘Control Risks’ Geopolitical Keynotes for 2021’. The uptick in militant activity will continue to pose a threat to Mali’s extractive industry, particularly its gold mining sector. Bilateral tensions are likely to move further from economic to security issues in 2021, with the main flashpoints being human rights concerns, the South China Sea and Taiwan. PGI's Geopolitical Intelligence team have put together a list of some of the key risks for 2021. Geopolitical risks will continue to evolve in 2021 to produce even more unpredictable events.